- Dax NollenbergerDax’s Data: The Best Time to Sell Is…
My team and I have hypothesized for some time that there is an ideal time of year to sell your house. The justification was that this specific time of year produces a disproportionate amount of demand compared to supply, resulting in scarcity and improved outcomes for sellers. The conclusions were drawn from years of experience as one of the top selling teams in Santa Cruz County. As it turns out, our hypothesis was correct and I have the data to prove it.
Sellers always ask “When is the best time of year to sell a home?” To which the response is always “when it is the best time for you”. While that may not be the response that sellers are looking for, it’s absolutely the truth. Timing the market is a fool’s errand and while past data can help in making predictions about the future, the reality is no one knows what the future market conditions will be. Another disclaimer as it relates to data, every house/circumstance is different. Factors such as the quality of the home, presentation, and the Realtor are much more impactful than time of year.
With all that said… and with all else created equal, the data shows that there is a time of year that most often produces the best results for sellers.
To determine when months of the year to sell a home is, I pulled every single family listing that has been on the market since 2019. I sorted by original list date to better reflect the actual time of year a listing was posted. I then analyzed all of the sales that occurred based on their original listing month, highlighting metrics like Price, Days on Market, Price/List Ratio, and Price/Sqft. I then compiled all of the rankings to determine which listing month produces the best overall metrics for sellers. In addition to analyzing the homes that sold, I also wanted to determine which months give you the best odds to sell at all. Now, this data set just happens to have one of the most unique sales years ever with COVID lockdowns that occurred in 2020. So, to avoid the suggestion of skews in the data, I also analyzed the data without 2020.
Without further ado, here are the results.
Popular belief amongst sellers and Realtors alike is that summer is the best time to sell. It’s when the kids are out of school and more of the buyer pool is active in the market. While the second part of that statement is accurate, what we have seen is the influx of supply during these months has outpaced the demand. We have hypothesized that March is actually the ideal time because buyers are jumping back in the market at a disproportionate rate to new listings. As the numbers show, this conclusion is correct.
When is the Best Time to Sell?
Conventional wisdom says spring and summer are the best times to sell—but the data tells a more nuanced story. March and May consistently perform at the top. With strong pricing and fast-moving sales, January is a sleeper hit, ranking third overall and outperforming the holiday months. February sees homes selling quickly, while April benefits from strong momentum as buyers and sellers who missed the March window stay active.
As summer approaches, May holds its strength, but June and July bring increased competition, meaning the right strategy matters more than ever. By August, we see the first signs of market cooling, with demand tapering. September historically ranks lowest, likely due to back-to-school transitions and a buildup of unsold inventory.
Surprisingly, fall isn’t just a winding-down period—October performs well, even boasting the highest price per square foot. November offers a final window of opportunity before the holidays slow things down, and while December is the quietest month, it’s still possible to secure a great result with the right approach.
Ultimately, the best time to sell is when it’s right for you. Every season has advantages—understanding the dynamics of each can help maximize your success.
January:
While listing at the start of the year isn’t considered ideal in the eyes of many, the data shows this is actually a good time to sell. Ranking 3rd in overall score behind only March and May, January performs well in terms of Price, DOM, and Price/List. If you’re considering a late-year listing, waiting until January may be worth it, as it outperforms November and December.
February:
February ranks fifth overall when compiling all of the metrics. While pricing falls in the middle of the pack, homes sell quickly—ranking second in Days on Market—and achieve the highest Price/List ratio. With motivated buyers in the market and inventory still relatively low, February can be an effective time to list.
March:
Over the past 6+ years, March is the clear winner when it comes to timing for selling your property. March performed 1st in Median Price, 2nd in Average Price, 1st in DOM, 3rd in Price/List, and 3rd in Price/Sqft. This is a time when demand is ramping up as the weather improves and buyers requalify with updated tax returns. At the same time, supply is improving, but not at the same pace. If you have flexibility, March is an excellent time to list.
April:
April ranks 4th in overall performance. The Median Price is 2nd while the Average Price is 4th. Days on Market and Price/List rank 4th respectively. We often see targeted March listings leak into April as sellers underestimate the timeframe needed for their readiness.
May:
May ranks second in overall sales performance. This makes sense when you think about the flow/mechanics of the year. Listing in May allows you to get on the market while demand is ramping up but before the influx of available supply that occurs in the following months. May has produced the highest number of new listings, but the cumulative effect of higher listings begins to have more impact in the following months. May ranks first in Average Price, second in Median Price, and second in Price/Sqft. However, increased supply begins to influence market dynamics, leading to longer Days on Market and a lower Price/List ratio. To maximize results in May, strategic pricing and strong presentation are key.
June:
June offers plenty of opportunities for sellers, but it’s also a time when inventory rises, creating a more competitive landscape. With the third-highest number of new listings annually, buyers have more choices, making strategic pricing and presentation even more important. While June ranks 11th in overall performance, homes that stand out can still achieve great results. This is where working with the right Realtor makes all the difference—ensuring your home is positioned to attract strong offers. If you’re ready to sell earlier in the year, don’t feel pressured to wait for summer, but if June is your target, a well-prepared listing can still shine in the market.
July:
Similar to June, this is a preferred month for listing due to the convenience of selling during the school break and prime weather. July ranks 8th in the cumulative metric rankings. The key to success in July is differentiation—buyers are still active, but with more choices. A well-prepared and well-presented home will still attract strong offers.
August:
August marks the beginning of a market shift, as demand starts to taper after the peak listing months of May, June, and July. While homes still sell, both supply and demand trend downward, signaling the transition into a slower season. With more lingering summer inventory, competition remains, contributing to August’s 11th-place ranking in overall performance. Sellers in August can still achieve success, but the right strategy becomes even more important in capturing buyer attention.
September:
The reasoning behind why September ranks last is up for debate. If I had to draw conclusions, it’s likely because the summer break ends, kids go back to school, and the cumulative impact of unsold supply from previous months has compounded. However, motivated buyers remain, and fewer new listings mean reduced competition. Success in September is all about presentation.
October:
October stands out as a strong performer, ranking fifth overall despite being in a season where sales activity typically slows. Notably, it holds the top spot for price per square foot, partially influenced by a record-breaking $15M sale. However, this shouldn’t overshadow the broader trend that October continues to offer solid opportunities for sellers. With motivated buyers still in the market and less competition than the peak summer months, a well-presented home can achieve excellent results later in the year.
November:
November ranks sixth overall in cumulative performance, driven in part by its strong third-place ranking in Median Price. It’s also the last month before activity really takes a dive. November can be a good time to list for those looking to capitalize before the year’s end. While timing should always align with your personal goals, the combination of solid pricing and reduced competition makes November a compelling option.
December:
This is the slowest month of the year. With only 290 sales in 6 years, this is when most buyers pack it in and wait for the new year. Ranking 8th in cumulative metric rankings, it’s still possible to achieve your objective of highest and best result. That said, the holidays produce a period of minimal activity where your home is more likely to sit. If circumstances allow, it may be better to wait for the new year.
2020 was an outlier! Is it skewing the data?
Hard to imagine this was five years ago. When Covid lockdowns started in March 2020, the entire market took a temporary pause before exploding within a few months. While excluding 2020 shifts some metrics, the overall trend remains the same—March, April, and May consistently stand out as the prime selling months.
Is there a time of year that produces the best odds to sell?
The data shows that homes listed earlier in the year, particularly in March, April, and May, have the best odds of selling. This is when buyer demand is rising, and inventory hasn’t yet peaked, creating favorable conditions for sellers. In contrast, homes listed later in the year face statistical headwinds, as fall and winter bring a seasonal slowdown. Buyers become less active due to school schedules, holidays, and shifting priorities, while unsold summer inventory lingers, increasing competition.
That said, homes can still sell successfully in the later months. With fewer new listings entering the market, motivated buyers remain engaged, and a well-positioned home can still attract strong offers. The key to selling at any time of year is strategy—effective pricing, presentation, and marketing make all the difference.
Conclusion: What Does This All Mean?
The data confirms what my team and I have long suspected, there are certain times of the year when sellers have the best odds of success. March, April, and May consistently produce the strongest results, with a balance of high demand and manageable competition. While conventional wisdom often points to summer as the prime selling season, the numbers suggest otherwise—inventory builds faster than demand in June and beyond, leading to longer market times and increased competition.
That said, the best time to sell isn’t just about market trends, it’s about your personal timing and goals. Homes sell in every season, and success comes down to strategy. A well-prepared, well-marketed home can attract strong offers at any time of year.
Whether you’re thinking about selling in a peak season or a quieter month, the key is having the right plan in place. If you’re considering a move, let’s connect—I’d love to help you navigate the market and maximize your results.
Dax Nollenberger
dax@sereno.com
831-227-5847
