- Dax NollenbergerDax’s Data: Where is the Market Through Q1 of 2026
The general feeling early this year, just from being in the trenches locally, was that the market felt slow. Sellers appeared hesitant, and many buyers either felt priced out or were waiting to see what rates would do next.
So the question becomes: How is the market?
To answer that, we need the right lens. Look only at the last few years and it may feel like we are building toward a stronger year. Zoom out too far without context and it can look historically slow. Neither tells the full story. Context matters.
As always with Dax’s Data, I start with a hypothesis based on what I’m feeling in the market, then test it against the data.
The Parameters
To analyze the start of 2026, I pulled reliable data going back to 2010. I focused specifically on Q1 of each year to create a consistent comparison point and better understand how this year is actually starting.
What the Data Shows
- 2026 Q1 Sales: 14th out of 17
- 2026 Q1 New Listings: 9th out of 17
- Sales to New Listings Ratio: 15th out of 17
- Days to Sell (Average): 7th out of 17
- Price per SqFt: 3rd out of 17
There are two ways to read this.
On one hand, 2026 is stronger than the last three years in terms of both sales and new listings. That suggests some level of improvement.
On the other, when viewed against the full dataset, 2026 still ranks near the bottom in terms of overall sales activity and absorption.
What’s Actually Happening
1. The Market Is Active, But Not Efficient
Inventory is not exceptionally low relative to history, yet sales remain near the bottom of the range and the sales to new listings ratio ranks 15th out of 17.
Homes are coming to market, but they are not converting into sales at the rate we have historically seen. This is not purely a supply issue. It points to friction between buyers and sellers.
Buyers are still active, but more selective. Sellers are still listing, but not always aligned with where buyers are willing to transact.
2. Prices Are Being Supported by Low Turnover
Despite weaker sales and absorption, price per square foot ranks 3rd out of 17.
In a typical market, weaker demand would lead to more noticeable price declines. That has not happened here.
The reason is simple. Sellers are not being forced to sell. Many are sitting on ultra-low interest rates, significant equity, and tax positions that reward holding. That lack of pressure keeps inventory tight and supports pricing, even as transaction volume softens.
3. This Is a Structural Shift, Not a Cycle
Yes, 2026 looks better than the last few years. But when placed in a longer-term context, it still reflects a slower market.
This suggests we are not returning to what used to be considered normal. Instead, we are settling into a different baseline.
A combination of factors has fundamentally changed turnover:
- Long-term owners locked into low rates
- Tax structures that discourage selling
- Significant wealth creation through appreciation
- Ongoing constraints on new supply
This is not a temporary slowdown. It is a shift in how the market functions.
What This Means for 2026
Expect some improvement from the historically low levels of the past few years, particularly in inventory and transaction volume.
But do not expect a return to the conditions we saw 5, 10, or 15 years ago.
The more likely outcome is a market that continues to move, just at a more deliberate pace. Buyers will remain active but measured. Sellers who price correctly will still find success. The difference is that execution matters more than it did during the peak years.
Bottom Line
The market is not weak.
It is constrained.
And until something meaningfully changes on the supply side, that constraint is likely here to stay.If you are trying to make sense of where the market is headed or how these trends impact your specific situation, feel free to reach out. I’m always happy to walk through the data and what it means for you.
Dax Nollenberger
📩 dax@sereno.com
📞 831-227-5847
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