The market is hotter than hot. And crazier than crazy.

Tom Brezsny
- Tom Brezsny

The market is hotter than hot. And crazier than crazy.

Picking up the thread…. The market is hotter than hot. And crazier than crazy.  And just when we thought it couldn’t get any hotter or crazier,  it took another quantum leap above and beyond anything we’d ever seen before.  Again. 

This is uncharted territory for Santa Cruz Buyers and Sellers. It’s a wild ride that looks a lot like how Silicon Valley real estate used to look to us here on the Coast, just a few short years ago.  If you need a little data to help digest it all, look at the numbers for April and how they compare to previous Aprils since 2018:

Sales Price: April 2021 was $1.27m compared to $950k in 2020, $968k in 2019 and $885k in 2018.  Number of sales: 204 in 2021 compared to 94 in 2020, 144 in 2019 and 174 in 2018.  Average days on market: 15 in 2021 compared to 27 in 2020, 45 in 2019 and 28 in 2018. Sale price compared to list price: 108% in 2021 compared to 99% in 2020, 99% in 2019 and 101% in 2018. 

In the interest of sanity,  let’s pause for a short rant about how crazy the market is:

Things are moving too fast!  The market is broken!  The entire process has been pushed way beyond its limits.  No one really knows what anything is worth anymore!  The list price isn’t really the list price – it’s just the starting price!  Comps?  What are comps? Is this house going to appraise? Inspections?  If you want to buy this house you better be thinking no contingencies! If you don’t offer your best price, you may not even get a counter!  Agents don’t have a clue what to tell their clients!  Buyers are burned out! Sellers expectations are in the stratosphere and still climbing!  None of it makes any sense!

So what happens when the intensity of the market ratchets up to such a fever pitch? Where does all that crazy energy go? Inevitably, levels of anticipatory-anxiety rise and people start clutching at straws.  All the dreaded “what-ifs” begin to come out of the woodwork of the psyche. And people start imagining alternatives just as far-fetched and fearful as what’s actually happening. 

The default alternative right now, is that the market must be heading for a crash.  It’s a whisper that’s getting a little louder with each passing week even as prices continue to rise.  Recently google informed us that the top real estate-related search is  “real estate bubble” and for those who think that the reality of the market always follows perception, that’s proof positive that a crash is on the way.  

Next Week:  Are we really headed for a crash?

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