The myth of an always-bullish summer market
Here we are…right on cue. It’s the 6th day of summer and, not uncoincidentally, we’ve been talking about the seasonal downshift that often happens right about now, despite all the ad hoc wisdom that likes to insist that summer is the best time to sell a house.
That’s when the weather is warm, the catfish are jumpin’ and the prices are high. But if you want to hear why that just isn’t the case anymore, read my recent columns that deconstruct the myth of an always-bullish summer market.
Today, let’s catch up on local sales stats for SC County to see if they shed any light on where things are headed. Trying to get an accurate read on what the market is doing from random newspaper articles and posts selling some kind of spin is next to impossible. So let’s all start out on the same page, with the same stats moving forward. Next week I’ll tender a few predictions about what Sellers and Buyers can expect to see between now and 2020.
Anyone interested in receiving more detailed breakdowns on market trends in Santa Cruz, Santa Clara and San Mateo Counties, can email me. I’m happy to forward complete metrics for each. If you don’t understand why it’s important to follow those neighboring markets, it’s time to get a refresher course on how Silicon Valley drives real estate sales here on the Coast.
Here’s a quick review of single family home sales in Santa Cruz County:
Median Price: This number was up significantly year-over-year as it approached an all-time high. It was $945,000 for May of 2019 compared to $863,000 for May of 2018.
# of Closed Sales: This number dropped by about 20%. 147 Sales were recorded in May of 2019 versus 184 Sales in May of 2018.
Average Days on Market or DOM (I’ve written extensively about the importance of days on market as an indicator of market value for buyers): This number increased from 28 DOM in May of 2018 to an average of 36 DOM in May of 2019.
% of List Price Received: In May 2018, sold listings, on average, received 102% of their list price. In May 2019 sold properties received 99% of their list price.
Average # of Months to Sell: In May 2018 it took an average of 2.7 months for a home to sell. In May 2019 that number rose to 3.7 months.
Heading into the summer, these are decidedly mixed results. The median price point is close to its all-time high but virtually every other indicator is down, suggesting that inventory is growing and things are slowing.