- Dax NollenbergerDax’s Data: What’s Selling (and What Isn’t) in Today’s Market – 2025 Update
We are just eight months into the year, and 2025 has already delivered more listings than all of 2023, and we are very close to surpassing 2024 as well. That is a significant increase in supply, especially when you consider the pressure that higher interest rates have put on both buyers and sellers over the past few years. It is not unusual to see the market slow when borrowing costs rise, but what we are seeing in 2025 is something different. Sellers are stepping forward in greater numbers, perhaps due to pent-up demand to move, life changes that cannot wait, or confidence that there are still buyers ready to engage even in a higher rate environment.
When I wrote a similar blog at the end of 2024, I hypothesized that there is a sweet spot for sales and the luxury market (3M+) is comparatively soft. That has essentially held true but with some additional factors at play. The influx in new listings in 2025 have softened the market at every price point. There is a clear divide between homes that are selling and those that are not. Homes that are selling are performing historically well, but the percentage of homes listed that are selling is the lowest it has been in years.
Let’s start with a snapshot of 2025.
Here’s the Data:
2025
2024
Past Years
Annual Snapshot: Sales vs Listings
One of the most striking takeaways from 2025 so far is the gap between new listings and closed sales. Through August, there have already been 1,633 new listings but only 724 sales. That translates to a sales-to-listings ratio of just 44.34%.
It is fair to expect this number to be lower since the year has not yet concluded, and more homes will close in the coming months. Even so, we would not expect it to be this low compared to past years.
- In 2019, the ratio was 77.71%.
- In 2020, it peaked at 86.22%.
- In 2021, it climbed even higher to 93.54%.
- More recently, 2023 sat at 74.27% and 2024 dipped to 65.05%.
Dropping all the way to the mid-40s in 2025 is a dramatic change. It highlights how much choice buyers have, how cautious they are being, and how many homes will ultimately sit on the market without selling.
The Luxury Market Takes Center Stage
This increase in listings is not evenly distributed across price points. The real story this year is unfolding in the luxury market. Homes priced over $2 million have surged, yet fewer than half have sold. On one side, luxury listings have come on in much greater numbers than in recent years. On the other side, fewer than half of those homes have sold. Right now, less than 50 percent of all 2025 listings have closed, and while some of the currently active homes will eventually sell, many will not.
Location is the primary driver of what is selling and what isn’t. Ocean proximity and ocean features are performing best, while rural luxury is historically slow.
Days on Market Tells the Story
Days on Market (DOM) provides some of the clearest insight into this dynamic. Across every price point, active listings are averaging more than 60 days on the market, which is significantly higher than what we have seen in the last two years. At the very top of the market, for homes priced at $3 million and above, the average DOM for active listings is nearing 100 days. That means many of these properties are sitting for three months or longer without finding a buyer. This is not a sign of a healthy, fast-moving luxury market. Instead, it signals that buyers are moving cautiously, taking their time, and being very selective.
Sales Conversion is Struggling at the Top
The sales data illustrates just how difficult it has been for luxury homes to convert listings into sales. Only 31.16% of homes over $3M and 34.21% between $2.5M–$3M have sold so far this year, underscoring just how tough the upper tier has become. These are strikingly low numbers, and they show just how much of a challenge the upper tier of the market is facing right now.
Strong Results for Homes That Do Sell
And yet, the story is not entirely negative. The homes that do sell are performing well. In fact, compared to the past two years, sales in 2025 are outperforming on key metrics. Price-to-list ratios are stronger, days on market for sold homes are shorter, and price per square foot is holding up nicely. What this shows is that when a home is priced correctly and positioned well, buyers respond, and those listings are rewarded with successful outcomes. The market is punishing overpricing and poor presentation, but it is rewarding sellers who bring their homes to market in the right way.
Looking Ahead
As we move through the rest of the year, we will see some of the current inventory absorbed. It is reasonable to expect that a portion of active listings, particularly those that adjust pricing or refine their presentation, will sell. However, the overall numbers suggest that a large share of 2025 homes will remain unsold by the time the year closes out. That reality is clearest at the luxury end of the market, where buyer caution and longer DOM are the norm rather than the exception.
For sellers, the takeaway could not be more straightforward. Pricing and presentation matter more than ever. Buyers have choices, and they are not feeling rushed. A listing that is positioned correctly from day one has the best chance to capture attention and convert into a sale. For buyers, the current landscape presents opportunities. Longer days on market mean more negotiating room, more time to evaluate options, and in some cases, the chance to secure a home at a better value.
The Santa Cruz market continues to evolve, and 2025 is shaping up to be a year where both opportunity and caution go hand in hand. Sellers who prepare thoughtfully and price realistically will succeed, while buyers will benefit from more inventory and slower pacing at the high end.
📩 dax@sereno.com
📞 831-227-5847
