Weekly Stats

Weekly Market Update time! Active inventory remains relatively flat, hovering between 335 and 348 in the last 5 weeks. New listings for this week were 54, the lowest total in 7 weeks. Given seasonality, that downward trend should continue as we head towards the end of the year. Mortgage rates took another significant 20 basis point hike, hitting their highest point since December 2000. Homes under contract decreased by 15 to 26, while homes closed decreased by 1 compared to last week. As for the 30-day numbers, the Median Price jumped back up to the previous 1.2M support level. The Average price also increased compared to last week’s 30-day numbers. Meanwhile, Days on Market continues to climb, increasing for the 6th consecutive week. % over asking price decreased to its lowest point since early March. Price/Sqft is up 5.37% compared to last week’s 30-day which was a 6-month low.

Here we are talking about the Fed rate again (which indirectly impacts mortgage rates as this is the rate at which banks borrow money). While the Fed announced no further rate hike this month, the underlying sentiment was that inflation remains too high… which could result in inflated rates for a longer time. The uncertain tone of the message has the market feeling worried about increased pain in the near future. If the last 12+ months are any indication, don’t expect inflated rates to have a big downward impact on pricing.

Market Stats

September, 2023

Below are the Santa Cruz County Market Statistics for August ’23. Here are the highlights:

– Active Inventory increased by 5.6% from July ’23 to August ‘23. Active Inventory is down 4.7% from August ’22.

– The median SFH sales price for August was $1.20M, down 7.7% from the month prior. August ’23 median home price is down 7.7% from August ’22.

– Number of Sales decreased by 0.8% from July ’23 and is down 15.4% from August ’22.

– Days on Market in August ’22 was 29. Days on Market in August ’23 was 28.

Last month we discussed the possibility that we may have seen the peak in terms of activity for the year. That turned out to be a tad premature as sales only decreased by 1, active inventory had a solid 5.6% jump, and new listings had a strong 22.1% rebound compared to last month. While a ricochet off the terrible new listings number in July is nice to see, we continue to be on a historically low pace. This will keep prices inflated. Speaking of prices… the median P\price was $1.2M in August. If you follow Dax’s Data Weekly Market Updates, you know that $1.2M has significance as a low support level in our local real estate market. Expect a recoil off this number in September. The winds of change are coming. We can predict a continual decrease in activity as we march toward fall. August was another month of high interest rates resulting in suppressed buyer action. This suppression will continue until we see steady evidence of more affordable borrowing options.

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