Weekly Stats

Dax’s Data Weekly Market Update time. For the first time in five weeks, active inventory rose, a welcome sign for prospective buyers. There were 51 new listings this week, an increase from last but still down compared to the same week last year (58). Mortgage rates decreased slightly, sliding back under 7% APR. Homes under contract were 23 this week while homes closed were only 14. As for the 30-day numbers, the Median Price rose above $1.2M for the first time since December. The Average Price is up from last week and at its highest total in 2024 (but still down significantly from the Dec ’23 high of over 1.6M). Days on Market is down compared to last week’s 30-day. Price/List ratio decreased slightly to 97.1%. Price/Sqft is at its highest point since December of last year.

The poor December and January sales continue to filter out of the data set, improving the 30-day price, DOM, and Price/Sqft. Poor weather in early February will likely impact the data set in the coming weeks but we are prepared and won’t overreact if it occurs. The sample size is still very small with only 54 SFH homes closed in the last 30-days. Early indications are that not only is the new listing issue not improving compared to last year’s record lows, but it may be worse. Now, there is evidence that there is a correlation between improving rates and increased listing numbers. That said, the last three years provide some compelling evidence that this correlation won’t hold true this time around. Just think, demand during the COVID boom had never been higher and rates had never been lower, and yet listings numbers were still hovering at record lows. COVID listing data could be an anomaly but I’m betting it isn’t and low new listings are here to stay.

Market Stats

February, 2024

Below are the Santa Cruz County Market Statistics for December ’23. Here are the highlights:

– Active Inventory decreased by 22.2% from November ’23 to December ‘23. Active Inventory is down 8.4% from December ’22.

– The median SFH sales price for December was $1.05M, down 17.9% from the month prior. December ’23 median home price is down 8.7% from December ’22.

– Number of Sales increased by 17.4% from November ’23 and is down 4.7% from December ’22.

– Days on Market in December ’22 was 36. Days on Market in December ’23 was 44.

On the surface, December produced numbers that could be tells of a coming decrease in the value of homes. A quick analysis of the sales themselves tells a different story. Sample size is an important consideration because small sample sizes (like the number of homes sold in December) are disproportionately impacted by outliers. December produced an overly large percentage of sales in the lowest quartile of price. This can partly be attributed to an increased likelihood of distressed sales at lower price points. Homeowners with time and money flexibility are much more likely to wait until the new year before listing their homes for sale. Early January data confirmed the theory that activity, demand, and sales would quickly rebound.

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