Happy market update day! Active inventory decreased after setting new year highs in back-to-back weeks. New listing numbers remain strong with three straight weeks in the 70s. Mortgage rates jumped significantly and now sit at 7.2% APR. Homes under contract numbers increased despite those spiked rates. Homes closed had their lowest number since April. As for the 30-day totals, the median price decreased by nearly 4% compared to last week’s 30-day total, settling at $1.255M. The Average Price also decreased to $1.307M, its lowest point in 20 months. Days on Market was 35, down by over 2 days compared to last week. Price/List decreased to its lowest point in nearly two months. Price/Sqft is also down, albeit only slightly.

Every single 30-day metric decreased compared to last week’s 30-day totals. Initial instinct is to blame the hike on rates, but I’d have to push back on that theory. The 30-day totals are closed sales metrics, aka trailing data. The data we are seeing now is data that is trickling from the past, sometimes as much as many months ago (and before any additional hikes). I view that as just natural variation that occurs with 30-day sample sizes where no two data points are alike. Where you typically would see an immediate impact would be homes under contract; those are data points from just last week. Instead of seeing a drop, we saw a rise. This isn’t to say that mortgage rates aren’t having an impact on buyer demand; it is to say that at these prices, with this level of qualified buyer pool, 25 to 50 basis points is not going to drive demand off a cliff. Instead, many buyers view this as a potential opportunity. If they can afford to buy while others can’t, they improve their leverage, secure the house, and give themselves the option to refinance when rates improve. For sellers, timing the market is an exercise in futility; the best time to sell is when it is the best time for you.